Do you think...?

Kevin,
Excellent question...
I don't think (I could, of course, be wrong) China would use military force against Taiwan should they declare independence because of economic and political ties. For one, the U.S. is one of Taiwan's biggest allies and trading partners. The U.S. is also on the top of China's trading list. I think military action of any kind would disrupt these relationships immensely and therefore may be out of the question. Often times, for better or worse, economics drives much of the world in one way or another.

I spoke to two college students yesterday about this situation and they were quite vocal in their opinion of the situation. And according to an anti-China march of a million people in Taipei a few years ago, it seems as though many people here share these student's thoughts. If China seeks to unify their motherland (That's how they word it), why would they be willing to kill thousands, if not millions, of their own people to reach this end? Seems a bit out of sync with their message of bringing China together.

Though it is certainly more complicated than this, the fact is that China and Taiwan have governments which are vastly different ideologically and whose recent histories are just as different. While China is considered a communist country, Taiwan, at least since the early to mid 90s, has been a country that thrives on capitalism, and as a result has become quite wealthy. At the same time, it is also worth noting that there are more freedoms in Taiwan. Whether it be freedom of press, or individual freedoms. I also figured out that while China is roughly 54 times the population of Taiwan and immensely larger physically, Taiwan is still ranked 21st on the world's GDP list, which is a good sign of a healthy economy. Taiwan also produces more daily newspapers (not in quantity, but in variety) than does China, which is also a sign of a more free press.

I think that military threats against Taiwan should certainly be taken seriously like any other, but that perhaps because these threats may stem from some other governmental insecurity with, perhaps, Taiwan's global and internal successes, that perhaps China would benefit from seeking an alternative to a military strike. it's also worth mentioning how many new countries came to be and why they came to be in the last few decades. A couple of dozen new countries in Europe, East Timor in Asia, Namibia in Africa....I wonder if Taiwan's reasons for wanting independence are valid. Certainly a good discussion!

A political map of China and its neighbors.. IRC. 2005. unitedstreaming. 2 June 2006 http://www.unitedstreaming.com